Comparison of Hedging Strategies between Vietnam and the Philippines amid the U.S.-China Strategic Competition

Qianqian Liu

doi:10.62051/ijsspa.v2n2.07

Authors

Qianqian Liu

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62051/ijsspa.v2n2.07

Keywords:

Hedging Strategies, U.S.-China Strategic Competition, Indo-Pacific Region

Abstract

This paper examines and compares the hedging strategies of Vietnam and the Philippines towards both the United States and China. The study is grounded in the context of heightened geopolitical and economic rivalry, where smaller states confront the challenge of navigating the complex dynamics between these two major powers. Hedging, as a strategy to manage uncertainties and risks, is analyzed through a comparative case study approach, focusing on five key components: indirect balancing, dominance denial, economic pragmatism, binding engagement, and limited bandwagoning. The findings indicate that both Vietnam and the Philippines utilize hedging, but with differences. Vietnam's approach is more systematic and comprehensive, involving all five components, whereas the Philippines' strategy is more reactive and less planned, with a stronger tilt towards the U.S. due to shared democratic values and historical ties. The research underscores the nuanced nature of hedging and its implications for middle powers navigating great power rivalries in the Indo-Pacific region.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

A. Gerstl, Hedging Strategies in Southeast Asia: ASEAN, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam and their Relations with China (1st ed.). Routledge, 2022.

C.-W. Kou, et al., The Strategic Options of Middle Powers in the Asia-Pacific (1st ed.). Routledge, 2022.

H. Ji. Rim and J. E. Platte, Indo-Pacific Strategies and Foreign Policy Challenges: The US-China Strategic Competition (1st ed.). Routledge, 2023.

B. Glaser and M. Funaiole. (2017, October). The 19th Party Congress: A More Assertive Chinese Foreign Policy. The Interpreter. [Online]. Available: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/19th-party-congress-more-assertive-chinese-foreign-policy.

United States, White House. (2021, September). Remarks by President Biden, Prime Minister Morrison of Australia, and Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom Announcing the Creation of AUKUS. Briefing Room, Speeches and Remarks. [Online]. Available: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/09/15/ remarks-by-president-biden-prime-minister-morrison-of-australia-and-prime-minister-johnson-of-the-united-kingdom-announcing-the-creation-of-aukus/.

United States, White House. (2022, February). Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States. [Online]. Available: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf.

C-M. Tang, Small States and Hegemonic Competition in Southeast Asia: Pursuing Autonomy, Security and Development amid Great Power Politics (1st ed.). Routledge, 2018.

E. Goh, “Southeast Asian Strategies Toward the Great Powers: Still Hedging After All These Years?” in The Asian Forum, 2016.

C.-C. Kuik, “The Essence of Hedging: Malaysia and Singapore’s Response to a Rising China.” Contemporary Southeast Asia, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 159-185, 2008.

H. Edström and J. Westberg, “The defense strategies of middle powers: Competing for security, influence and status in an era of unipolar demise.” Comparative Strategy, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 171-190, 2020.

J. Haacke, “The Concept of Hedging and Its Application to Southeast Asia: A Critique and a Proposal for a Modified Conceptual and Methodological Framework.” International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 375-417, 2019.

K. N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley, 1979.

S. M. Walt, “Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power.” International Security, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 3–43, 1985.

R. L. Schweller, “Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In.” International Security, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 72–107, 1994.

C.-C. Kuik, “Hedging in Post-Pandemic Asia: What, How, and Why?” in The ASAN Forum, 6 Jun. 2020.

E. Goh, “Meeting the China challenge: The US in Southeast Asian regional security strategies.” in East-West Center, 2005.

E. S. Medeiros, “Strategic hedging and the future of Asia‐pacific stability.” The Washington Quarterly, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 145-167, 2005.

P. A. Weitsman, Dangerous Alliances: Proponents of Peace, Weapons of War. Stanford University Press, 2004.

J. Železný, “More than just hedging? The reactions of Cambodia and Vietnam to the power struggle between the United States and China in times of Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’.” Asian Politics and Policy, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 216–248, 2022.

V. T. Dung, “South East Asian countries’ policies toward a rising China: lessons from Vietnam’s hedging response to the Belt and Road Initiative.” South East Asia Research, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 237-254, 2022.

J. D. Ciorciari and J. Haacke. “Hedging in International Relations: An Introduction.” International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 367-374, 2019.

D. Roy, “Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or Bandwagoning?” Contemporary Southeast Asia, vo. 27, no. 2, pp. 305-322, 2005.

L. H. Hiep, “Vietnam’s Hedging Strategy against China since Normalization.” Contemporary Southeast Asia, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 333-368, 2013.

Global Firepower. Asian Military Strength. (2023). [Online]. Available: https://www.globalfirepower. com/ countries-listing-asia.php.

Vietnam’s trade with largest partners in 2022. Vietnam Plus. (2024). [Online]. Available: https://en. vietnamplus.vn/vietnams-trade-with-largest-partners-in-2022/248239.vnp.

J. Laude, Defense Chiefs Back Freedom of Navigation in South China Sea. (2017, October). The Philippines Star. [Online]. Available: https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/10/24/1752200/defense-chiefs-back-freedom-navigation-south-china-sea.

A. J. Rabena, “The Complex Interdependence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the Philippines.” Asia & The Pacific Policy Studies, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 683-697, 2018.

W.-P. Tai and Y.-F. Huang, “Political and Economic Relations between China and the Philippines under the OBOR Initiative.” The Chinese Economy, vol. 51, no. 4, pp. 356-369, 2018.

“Philippines Top Trading Partners”. World’s Top Exports. (2023). [Online]. Available: https://www. worldstopexports.com/philippines-top-import-partners/#:~:text=Philippines%20Top%20Trading%20Partners% 201%20United%20States%3A%20US%2412.5,%284%25%29%208%20Taiwan%3A%20%243%20billion%20%283.8%25%29%20More%20items.