Research of the Spread of Covid-19 in World Wide and Particular Countries

Liqiao Zhu; Yifeng Peng; Lancong Xie; Yiwen Chen

doi:10.62051/c3pmeb82

Authors

Liqiao Zhu
Yifeng Peng
Lancong Xie
Yiwen Chen

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62051/c3pmeb82

Keywords:

COVID-19; time series; ARIMA; Python; spread trend.

Abstract

To understand the spread of COVID-19, the data sets from Google and GitHub are obtained by using Python and R, and ARIMA model is established for prediction. By visualising the data sets, it can be found that the total trend of the COVID-19 is bimodal and reaches its peaks during the winter and spring time in 2022 and 2023, and this may due to the virus activity and government management. When taking into prediction, ARIMA (3,1,3) is the best predict model to forecast the overall spread trend of COVID-19 as the data is not normal distributed since it keeps fluctuating in the P-P plot, and it can be considered as time series, showing a seasonal pattern. This conclusion is drawn by calculating the values of AIC and BIC to see which model has smallest. At the same time, the ACF and PACF index could determine the p and q value in the model. The model can help to predict the spread of similar diseases.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Wang C H, et al. 2022 New progress of COVID-19 mutants and their effects on vaccine immune protection. Journal of Hainan Medical College, 28 (6), 401 - 405.

Bian L, Liu J, Gao F, et al. 2022 Research progress on vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. Hum Vaccin Immunother, 18 (5), 2057161.

Saadoon I and Hussein K L 2021 COVID-19 Infection Among Hemodialysis Patients in Tikrit City. Working paper.

Mirzaei R, Attar A, Papizadeh S, et al. 2021 The emerging role of probiotics as a mitigation strategy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Archives of virology, 166 (7), 1819 - 1840.

Zhu M C, Bin S and Sun X X 2023. Construction and research of an infectious disease model based on the transmission characteristics of COVID-19. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 20 (2), 29 – 37.

Brazer S D, Bauer S C and Lavigne A L 2023 School and district structure adaptations to the COVID-19 super-stressor. Journal of Educational Administration, 61 (3), 205 - 221.

Ghislandi S, Muttarak R, Sauerberg M, et al. 2022 Human costs of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the major epicentres in Italy. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research.

Flore J, Hendry N A and Gaylor A 2023 Creative arts workers during the Covid-19 pandemic: Social imaginaries in lockdown. Journal of Sociology, 59 (1), 197 - 214.

Khadhraoui M, Bellaaj H, Ammar M B, et al. 2022 Survey of BERT-Base Models for Scientific Text Classification: COVID-19 Case Study. Applied Sciences, 12 (6), 2891.

Mgbere O, Nwabuko O, Olateju O, et al. 2023 EPH189 Assessment of Burden of COVID-19 Infection and the Dynamics in African Union Member States. Value in Health, 26.