A Comparative Study on the Influencing Factors of Sino-US Trade Transactions from a Longitudinal Perspective Based on Principal Component Analysis

Meiyu Wu

doi:10.62051/6e020p74

Authors

Meiyu Wu

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62051/6e020p74

Keywords:

Principal Component Analysis; Longitudinal Perspective; U.S.-China Trade; Pearson Correlation Coefficient; Influencing Factors.

Abstract

The restructuring of relations between the two global powers, China and the US, is one of the dominant elements in today's dynamic world. However, in recent years, with the intensification of mutual strategic contradictions, the restructuring of Sino-US economic and trade relations has increasingly become a consensus among all parties. In view of this, this thesis divides the Sino-US trade friction into three stages from 2002 to 2017, from 2018 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2023, and proposes a research model based on the influence factors of China-US trade exchanges based on the principal component analysis under each timeframe. Firstly, 17 tertiary indicators are selected as the influencing factors of China-US trade exchanges, and secondly, the Pearson's coefficient correlation is utilized to screen the indicators. Next, by using principal component analysis, multiple influencing factors were downscaled into 1 and 2 principal components. GDP per capita, the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar, the amount of Chinese OFDI in the US, and the US import/export surplus (deficit) in trade with China are identified as the crucial factors affecting the US-China trade exchange in the three time periods.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. Customs Statistics Query Platform . [EB/OL]. [2023-10-10]. http://stats.customs.gov.cn/.

Scissors, Derek. Some US-China Economic and Trade Facts. American Enterprise Institute, 2020. JSTOR.

X. Xu, "Rethinking the China-US Balance of Trade: 1990-2005," iBusiness, Vol. 4 No. 1, 2012, pp. 43-50.

Sider, K. J. (2020). Sino-American Clash of Hegemony: An Analysis of US-China Trade War. Open Journal of Political Science, 10, 15-26.

Jin, Jihong, & Steffens, Michael. Factors Analysis of the Electronics Industry Trade Imbalance between the US and China, International Journal of Marketing Studies, 2015. ISTOR.

Li Bo, Liu Changming. Causes and countermeasures of China-U.S. economic and trade friction:Based on the perspective of trade expectation theory[J]. Pacific Journal,2019,27(09):71-81.

Li Jiaxiao. Research on the causes and countermeasures of trade friction between China and the US [J]. Modern commerce industry,2019,40(20):52-53.

Jiang Quan. Causes and countermeasures of trade friction between China and the US[J]. Research on Financial Issues,2014(S1):154-157.

Yan Xiaona. Realistic Dilemma and Future Choice of China-US Economic and Trade Relations[J]. World Economic Research,2023(07):3-14+134.

Tan, D. H. Y., & Chen, C. (2019). Modelling the economic impact of the Sino- US trade dispute: a global perspective. in L. SONG, Y. ZHOU, & L. HURST (Eds.), The Chinese Economic Transformation: Views from Young Economists (pp. 215-236). ANU Press.

Chad P. Bown, Euijin Jung and Zhiyao Lu, Trump, China, and Tariffs: From Soybeans to Semiconductors, Trade and Investment Policy Watch, 2018. JSTOR.

Lanteigne, Marc. The Spiralling Effects of the Sino-American Trade War. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), 2020. JSTOR.

Lv Jianxing, Zhang Shaohua, Qiu Caixia. A study of the export deflection effect of U.S. trade frictions with China-Evidence from monthly data from 2009-2021[J]. Economic Science,2023(05):55-78.

Huang Hongbin, Xu Chenhui and Li Yuanyuan. Can the "group warming" cope with the "cold winter"? Trade policy uncertainty and firms' collaborative innovation: Empirical evidence from the "US-China trade friction"[J/OL]. Finance and Trade Research:1-21[2023-11-07].

Wang Xiaosong, Chen Yan. Causes, Effects and Response Strategies of Trade Friction[J]. Qilu Journal, 2023 (01):117-132.

Song Hong. Changes and impacts of U.S. trade and related policies after Trump took office[J]. International Economic Review,2017(01):102-117+6.

Xiao Zhimin, Feng Shenghao. Analysis of the economic impact of trade friction between China and the US - based on the perspective of value-added trade[J]. International Economic and Trade Exploration,2019,35(01):55-69.

Xu Kangning. The Dilemma and Repair of China-U.S. Economic and Trade Relations[J]. Open Herald,2023(05):46-52.

Yang Zhe. Analysis of the Causes, Impacts and Countermeasures of Trade Friction between China and the US after WTO Accession [D]. Shanghai International Studies University, 2007.

Li Wei, Zhou Mi, Ma Wei et al. The transmutation and way out of China-US economic and trade relations[J]. World Knowledge,2023(21):12-26.