Research on the Impact of Wildlife Trade Based on a Linked Comparative Forecasting Model: A Case Study of ASEAN

Yuhua Chen; Weifeng Sun; Xinyan Zhao

doi:10.62051/1kjt3t36

Authors

Yuhua Chen
Weifeng Sun
Xinyan Zhao

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62051/1kjt3t36

Keywords:

Illegal wildlife trade, Spearman correlation analysis, linked forecasting comparative model, ARIMA time series model.

Abstract

This study examines the challenges faced by ASEAN countries in combating illegal wildlife trade and implementing CITES. Despite efforts, illegal trade persists due to technological limitations, inadequate permit systems, poor interagency coordination, corruption, and low public awareness. The paper proposes project suggestions, including drone monitoring, a unified wildlife health information system, and improved enforcement mechanisms. Data analysis and empirical research confirm the alignment of these suggestions with ASEAN wildlife conservation plans. Predictions using linked models and ARIMA models suggest a high probability of successful illegal wildlife trade mitigation with adequate resources. The study provides a feasible approach for ASEAN to promote sustainable human-nature coexistence.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

[1] Mosig Reidl, P., & Ferguson, S. B. (2023). Legal and sustainable wild species trade: Learnings and implications for nature market governance. Taskforce on Nature Markets.

[2] Morton, O., Scheffers, B.R., Haugaasen, T. et al. Impacts of wildlife trade on terrestrial biodiversity. Nat Ecol Evol 5, 540–548 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01399-y

[3] Krishnasamy, K. and Zavagli, M. (2020). Southeast Asia: At the heart of wildlife trade. TRAFFIC, Southeast Asia Regional Office.

[4] Zhu Ninghua, Zheng Jiangbin & Zhang Yang. (2023).Review of intelligent detection and statistical methods of wild animals in UAV aerial photograph. Aeronautical engineering progress (01), 13-26. doi:10.16615/j.cnki.1674-8190.2023.01.02.

[5] The ASEAN Secretariat. (2021). ASEAN Handbook on Legal Cooperation to Combat Illegal Wildlife Trade 2021.Retrieved from https://asean.org/book/asean-handbook-on-legal-cooperation-to-combat-illegal-wildlife-trade-2021/

[6] Broussard, Giovanni. (2017). Building an effective criminal justice response to wildlife trafficking: experiences from the asean region. Review of European, Comparative & International Environmental Law, 26(2), 118-127.

[7] Broussard, Giovanni. (2017). Building an effective criminal justice response to wildlife trafficking: experiences from the asean region. Review of European, Comparative & International Environmental Law, 26(2), 118-127.

[8] Cui, X., Zhang, W., & Zhou, X. (2020). Trend analysis of animal and product smuggling in mainland China based on China custom cases from 2010 to 2017. Chinese Journal of Wildlife, 41(2), 513-517. https://doi.org/10.19711/j.cnki.issn2310-1490.2020.02.036

[9] Mosig Reidl, P., & Ferguson, S. B. (2023). Legal and sustainable wild species trade: Learnings and implications for nature market governance. Taskforce on Nature Markets.

[10] Zhu Ninghua, Zheng Jiangbin & Zhang Yang. (2023).Review of intelligent detection and statistical methods of wild animals in UAV aerial photograph. Aeronautical engineering progress (01),13-26. doi:10.16615/j.cnki.1674-8190.2023.01.02.

[11] Li Xianbin & Li Houqiang. (2019). The Evolution and Empirical Application Study of Quantitative Methods in Power Analysis. Social Science Research (01), 63-71.