Cargo Volume Forecasting for Logistics Sorting Centers Based on Random Forest Model

Abstract

With the rapid development of logistics industry, logistics sorting center, as a key node in e-commerce logistics network, its cargo volume prediction and personnel scheduling strategy are of great significance to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs. The purpose of this study is to deeply analyze the cargo volume data of 57 sorting centers through machine learning method, establish an accurate cargo volume prediction model, and optimize the personnel scheduling strategy based on the prediction results. In this study, we preprocess the historical cargo data, including missing value filling, time series conversion and feature construction. Then, the random forest model was used to carry out fitting analysis on the cargo volume data of different sorting centers. By comparing the evaluation indexes such as mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), the superiority of random forest model compared with neural network, support vector regression and linear regression models was verified. This study not only improves the accuracy of cargo volume forecast, but also realizes the reasonable allocation of human resources, and provides scientific decision support for the operation and management of logistics sorting center.