A "Colour Revolution" in Iran? Attack it with a Social Stability Model based on TOPSIS!

Abstract

A "color revolution" achieves regime change by attacking the weakest link in society, but once the ratio of each link in society is out of balance, it will cause social deformation and thus affect social stability. To study the factors affecting social stability and avoid "color revolutions", it is necessary to establish an effective social stability index system, and on this basis, to build a social stability coefficient model. To establish a complete social stability index system, this paper selects population, defense science and technology, environment, education, economy, and agriculture after dimensionality reduction. The six indicators were then downscaled to obtain population, national defense, science and technology, environment, education, economy, and agriculture, and the social stability coefficient was classified into five levels from 0 to 1 using the TOPSIS evaluation algorithm, with the higher the level the worse the social stability. Using Spearman and Akaike Causality to test the indicator system, it was found that there was a significant correlation and causality between the stability coefficient and each indicator, and the indicator system was well established. For regions that failed to launch "color revolutions", this paper takes Iran as an example, and after bringing its 44 indicators into the social stability coefficient model in 2018, it comes out that the social stability coefficient of Iran is 0.637, and the social stability level is in the second level of stability to the third level of stability, which is a more stable state at this time. There may be some precursors of social unrest. At the same time, Iran's population development and education level are at a high level, and the general education and knowledge of the Iranian people are high, so the number of people who participate in internal conflicts and revolutions is reduced, which leads to the failure of color revolutions.