Effects of Changes in Temperature and CO2 Concentration on Maize Yields in the Loess Plateau

Chenguang Ma; Na Lei; Fang Zhang; Lei Shi; Jing Zhang; Yilun Dai

doi:10.62051/ijafsr.v2n1.04

Authors

Chenguang Ma
Na Lei
Fang Zhang
Lei Shi
Jing Zhang
Yilun Dai

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62051/ijafsr.v2n1.04

Keywords:

CO2, Climate change, APSIM model, Maize

Abstract

Addressing the impact of climate change on food security is now one of the most important challenges facing humanity in the twenty-first century. As one of the three major food crops in China, maize is widely planted on the Loess Plateau and is also a major source of local agricultural income. Therefore, accurately assessing the impacts of climate change on local maize production and formulating corresponding adaptive measures are of great theoretical and practical value in reducing the impacts of climate change and guaranteeing the sustainable development of local agriculture. In this study, we calibrated and validated the parameters of the APSIM model using maize field trial data from 2009 to 2012 in Yuzhong County to assess the applicability of the model in the local area. Effect of using measured climate data from 1979 to 2018 and changes in climate data based on measured data and different CO₂ concentrations (350 ppm, 450 ppm, 550 ppm, 650 ppm and 750 ppm) on maize yield in the region. The results showed that under the same CO₂ concentration gradient, with the increase of temperature, corn yield basically showed a decreasing trend, in which the CO₂ concentration at 350 ppm corn yield decreased at the greatest rate, the temperature increased by 5 ℃ compared to the baseline yield decreased by 30%; at the same temperature, with the increase of CO₂ concentration, corn yield had a small increase, in the baseline temperature case, CO₂ concentration at At 750 ppm, corn yields increased by 9% compared to yields at 350 ppm.

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